Kp forecast [-3h]
Kp forecast [-3h]
About the Plot
The top panel shows predicted Kp in blue (RWC-S) and observed Kp in red (GFZ) over the last three days. Each bar represents the 3-hour width of the Kp index. Attached to the last Kp bar is the latest predicted value. The green solid vertical line marks the time when the prediction was issued, with the timestamp shown in the header. The dashed vertical line marks the timestamp of the latest available input data. The dash-dotted line marks the timestamp of the latest prediction.
The three following panels show the solar wind magnetic field Bz, particle density n, and speed V measured at L1 with 1-minute resolution.
Kp
is the global earth magnetic storm index. The Kp index has a scale of 0 to 9, where a value of 0 means very little earth magnetic activity and a value of 9 means an extreme earth magnetic storm.
The Models
The Kp predictions are generated from four different models with different lead times. Each model consists of an ensemble of time-delay neural networks driven by measured solar wind at L1. The prediction lead time has two components: a variable propagation time from L1 to Earths bow shock, and the model lead time. The four different models are targeted at 0, 1, 2, and 3 hours lead time. Thus, the maximum prediction lead time is 3 hours plus the propagation time.
The inputs to the model are solar wind magnetic field B and Bz (only Bz shown in plot), density n, speed V, and time of day and time of year. The 1-minute solar wind data are transformed into 3-hour values (not just simple averages) to match the 3-hour Kp interval. The models are run once per minute thus providing 180 predictions for every 3-hour interval. In the comparison with the observed Kp, only the predicted Kp with timestamp closest to the standard 3-hour Kp interval is used. In the plot, all bars showing predicted Kp, except the last bar, therefore comes from one prediction for each 3-hour interval. As the prediction lead time is variable and does not match the standard 3-hour Kp interval, the last bar corresponds to the 3-hour interval containing the last predicted timestamp. The last bar will therefore change in height during the passage of time.
References
- The Kp-prediction models have been described in Wintoft et al. [2017] and further verification in Wintoft et al. [2018].
- The real-time solar wind data are obtained from SWPC.
- The real-time Kp index is obtained from GFZ.
- The main development of the current Kp forecast models was carried out within the EU project PROGRESS, No. 637302.
- The models have been implemented at the ESA SSA portal under the G-ESC, where additional verification is carried out in real-time.
- We are responsible for Regional Warning Center – Sweden, part of International Space Environment Service ISES.
Acknowledgement: IRF Lund
About the Plot The top panel shows predicted Dst in blue (RWC-S) and observed Dst in red (WDC-Kyoto) over the last three days. Each bar represents the 1-hour width of the Dst index. Attached to the last Dst bar is the latest predicted value. The green solid vertical line marks the time when the prediction was issued, with the timestamp shown in the header. The dashed vertical line marks the timestamp of the latest available input data. The dash-dotted line marks the timestamp of the latest prediction.
The three following panels show the solar wind magnetic field Bz, particle density n, and speed V measured at L1 with 1-minute resolution.
The Models The Dst prediction model consists of an ensemble of time-delay neural networks driven by measured solar wind at L1. The prediction lead time has two components: a variable propagation time from L1 to Earths bow shock, and the model lead time which is 1 hour. Thus, the maximum prediction lead time is 1 hour plus the propagation time.
The inputs to the model are solar wind magnetic field B and Bz (only Bz shown in plot), density n, speed V, and time of day and time of year. The 1-minute solar wind data are transformed into 1-hour values to match the 1-hour Dst interval. The models are run once per minute thus providing 60 predictions for every 1-hour interval. In the comparison with the observed Dst, only the predicted Dst with timestamp closest to the standard 1-hour Dst interval is used. In the plot, all bars showing predicted Dst, except the last bar, therefore comes from one prediction for each 1-hour interval. As the prediction lead time is variable and does not match the standard 1-hour Dst interval, the last bar corresponds to the 1-hour interval containing the last predicted timestamp. The last bar will therefore change in height during the passage of time.
References
- The Dst-prediction models have been described in Wintoft et al. [2018].
- The real-time solar wind data are obtained from SWPC.
- The real-time Kp index is obtained from World Data Center for Geomagnetism, Kyoto.
- The main development of the current Dst forecast model was carried out within the EU project PROGRESS, No. 637302.
- The models have been implemented at the ESA SSA portal under the G-ESC, where additional verification is carried out in real-time.
- We are responsible for Regional Warning Center – Sweden, part of International Space Environment Service ISES.
Acknowledgement [icon name=”bookmark” class=”” unprefixed_class=””] IRF Lund
About the Plot
The top panel shows predicted Kp in blue (RWC-S) and observed Kp in red (GFZ) over the last three days. Each bar represents the 3-hour width of the Kp index. Attached to the last Kp bar is the latest predicted value. The green solid vertical line marks the time when the prediction was issued, with the timestamp shown in the header. The dashed vertical line marks the timestamp of the latest available input data. The dash-dotted line marks the timestamp of the latest prediction.
The three following panels show the solar wind magnetic field Bz, particle density n, and speed V measured at L1 with 1-minute resolution.
Kp
is the global earth magnetic storm index. The Kp index has a scale of 0 to 9, where a value of 0 means very little earth magnetic activity and a value of 9 means an extreme earth magnetic storm.
The Models
The Kp predictions are generated from four different models with different lead times. Each model consists of an ensemble of time-delay neural networks driven by measured solar wind at L1. The prediction lead time has two components: a variable propagation time from L1 to Earths bow shock, and the model lead time. The four different models are targeted at 0, 1, 2, and 3 hours lead time. Thus, the maximum prediction lead time is 3 hours plus the propagation time.
The inputs to the model are solar wind magnetic field B and Bz (only Bz shown in plot), density n, speed V, and time of day and time of year. The 1-minute solar wind data are transformed into 3-hour values (not just simple averages) to match the 3-hour Kp interval. The models are run once per minute thus providing 180 predictions for every 3-hour interval. In the comparison with the observed Kp, only the predicted Kp with timestamp closest to the standard 3-hour Kp interval is used. In the plot, all bars showing predicted Kp, except the last bar, therefore comes from one prediction for each 3-hour interval. As the prediction lead time is variable and does not match the standard 3-hour Kp interval, the last bar corresponds to the 3-hour interval containing the last predicted timestamp. The last bar will therefore change in height during the passage of time.
References
- The Kp-prediction models have been described in Wintoft et al. [2017] and further verification in Wintoft et al. [2018].
- The real-time solar wind data are obtained from SWPC.
- The real-time Kp index is obtained from GFZ.
- The main development of the current Kp forecast models was carried out within the EU project PROGRESS, No. 637302.
- The models have been implemented at the ESA SSA portal under the G-ESC, where additional verification is carried out in real-time.
- We are responsible for Regional Warning Center – Sweden, part of International Space Environment Service ISES.
Acknowledgement: IRF Lund
Help / Donation / SOS
NorthernLightsStockholm.se started as something to do, to stay sane in the cold and dark winter months in Sweden. But now i need your help to keep this project alive. There are numerous things that I am paying out of my own pocket to keep this up and running and i simply cannot afford it any more.
Just the electricity bill is going to be insane this winter. I might need to turn off the server!!!
I am asking for your help to pay for the following:
★ SSL certificates
★Domain & DNS
★Server hosting (when I can afford it)
★Internet service provider
★Development time
★Plug-ins and functions
★API services
About the Plot
The top panel shows predicted Kp in blue (RWC-S) and observed Kp in red (GFZ) over the last three days. Each bar represents the 3-hour width of the Kp index. Attached to the last Kp bar is the latest predicted value. The green solid vertical line marks the time when the prediction was issued, with the timestamp shown in the header. The dashed vertical line marks the timestamp of the latest available input data. The dash-dotted line marks the timestamp of the latest prediction.
The three following panels show the solar wind magnetic field Bz, particle density n, and speed V measured at L1 with 1-minute resolution.
Kp
is the global earth magnetic storm index. The Kp index has a scale of 0 to 9, where a value of 0 means very little earth magnetic activity and a value of 9 means an extreme earth magnetic storm.
The Models
The Kp predictions are generated from four different models with different lead times. Each model consists of an ensemble of time-delay neural networks driven by measured solar wind at L1. The prediction lead time has two components: a variable propagation time from L1 to Earths bow shock, and the model lead time. The four different models are targeted at 0, 1, 2, and 3 hours lead time. Thus, the maximum prediction lead time is 3 hours plus the propagation time.
The inputs to the model are solar wind magnetic field B and Bz (only Bz shown in plot), density n, speed V, and time of day and time of year. The 1-minute solar wind data are transformed into 3-hour values (not just simple averages) to match the 3-hour Kp interval. The models are run once per minute thus providing 180 predictions for every 3-hour interval. In the comparison with the observed Kp, only the predicted Kp with timestamp closest to the standard 3-hour Kp interval is used. In the plot, all bars showing predicted Kp, except the last bar, therefore comes from one prediction for each 3-hour interval. As the prediction lead time is variable and does not match the standard 3-hour Kp interval, the last bar corresponds to the 3-hour interval containing the last predicted timestamp. The last bar will therefore change in height during the passage of time.
References
- The Kp-prediction models have been described in Wintoft et al. [2017] and further verification in Wintoft et al. [2018].
- The real-time solar wind data are obtained from SWPC.
- The real-time Kp index is obtained from GFZ.
- The main development of the current Kp forecast models was carried out within the EU project PROGRESS, No. 637302.
- The models have been implemented at the ESA SSA portal under the G-ESC, where additional verification is carried out in real-time.
- We are responsible for Regional Warning Center – Sweden, part of International Space Environment Service ISES.
Acknowledgement: IRF Lund
About the Plot
The top panel shows predicted Dst in blue (RWC-S) and observed Dst in red (WDC-Kyoto) over the last three days. Each bar represents the 1-hour width of the Dst index. Attached to the last Dst bar is the latest predicted value. The green solid vertical line marks the time when the prediction was issued, with the timestamp shown in the header. The dashed vertical line marks the timestamp of the latest available input data. The dash-dotted line marks the timestamp of the latest prediction.
The three following panels show the solar wind magnetic field Bz, particle density n, and speed V measured at L1 with 1-minute resolution.
The Models
The Dst prediction model consists of an ensemble of time-delay neural networks driven by measured solar wind at L1. The prediction lead time has two components: a variable propagation time from L1 to Earths bow shock, and the model lead time which is 1 hour. Thus, the maximum prediction lead time is 1 hour plus the propagation time.
The inputs to the model are solar wind magnetic field B and Bz (only Bz shown in plot), density n, speed V, and time of day and time of year. The 1-minute solar wind data are transformed into 1-hour values to match the 1-hour Dst interval. The models are run once per minute thus providing 60 predictions for every 1-hour interval. In the comparison with the observed Dst, only the predicted Dst with timestamp closest to the standard 1-hour Dst interval is used. In the plot, all bars showing predicted Dst, except the last bar, therefore comes from one prediction for each 1-hour interval. As the prediction lead time is variable and does not match the standard 1-hour Dst interval, the last bar corresponds to the 1-hour interval containing the last predicted timestamp. The last bar will therefore change in height during the passage of time.
References
- The Dst-prediction models have been described in Wintoft et al. [2018].
- The real-time solar wind data are obtained from SWPC.
- The real-time Kp index is obtained from World Data Center for Geomagnetism, Kyoto.
- The main development of the current Dst forecast model was carried out within the EU project PROGRESS, No. 637302.
- The models have been implemented at the ESA SSA portal under the G-ESC, where additional verification is carried out in real-time.
- We are responsible for Regional Warning Center – Sweden, part of International Space Environment Service ISES.
Acknowledgement IRF Lund
About the Plot
The top panel shows predicted Kp in blue (RWC-S) and observed Kp in red (GFZ) over the last three days. Each bar represents the 3-hour width of the Kp index. Attached to the last Kp bar is the latest predicted value. The green solid vertical line marks the time when the prediction was issued, with the timestamp shown in the header. The dashed vertical line marks the timestamp of the latest available input data. The dash-dotted line marks the timestamp of the latest prediction.
The three following panels show the solar wind magnetic field Bz, particle density n, and speed V measured at L1 with 1-minute resolution.
Kp
is the global earth magnetic storm index. The Kp index has a scale of 0 to 9, where a value of 0 means very little earth magnetic activity and a value of 9 means an extreme earth magnetic storm.
The Models
The Kp predictions are generated from four different models with different lead times. Each model consists of an ensemble of time-delay neural networks driven by measured solar wind at L1. The prediction lead time has two components: a variable propagation time from L1 to Earths bow shock, and the model lead time. The four different models are targeted at 0, 1, 2, and 3 hours lead time. Thus, the maximum prediction lead time is 3 hours plus the propagation time.
The inputs to the model are solar wind magnetic field B and Bz (only Bz shown in plot), density n, speed V, and time of day and time of year. The 1-minute solar wind data are transformed into 3-hour values (not just simple averages) to match the 3-hour Kp interval. The models are run once per minute thus providing 180 predictions for every 3-hour interval. In the comparison with the observed Kp, only the predicted Kp with timestamp closest to the standard 3-hour Kp interval is used. In the plot, all bars showing predicted Kp, except the last bar, therefore comes from one prediction for each 3-hour interval. As the prediction lead time is variable and does not match the standard 3-hour Kp interval, the last bar corresponds to the 3-hour interval containing the last predicted timestamp. The last bar will therefore change in height during the passage of time.
References
- The Kp-prediction models have been described in Wintoft et al. [2017] and further verification in Wintoft et al. [2018].
- The real-time solar wind data are obtained from SWPC.
- The real-time Kp index is obtained from GFZ.
- The main development of the current Kp forecast models was carried out within the EU project PROGRESS, No. 637302.
- The models have been implemented at the ESA SSA portal under the G-ESC, where additional verification is carried out in real-time.
- We are responsible for Regional Warning Center – Sweden, part of International Space Environment Service ISES.
Acknowledgement: IRF Lund
About the Plot
The top panel shows predicted Dst in blue (RWC-S) and observed Dst in red (WDC-Kyoto) over the last three days. Each bar represents the 1-hour width of the Dst index. Attached to the last Dst bar is the latest predicted value. The green solid vertical line marks the time when the prediction was issued, with the timestamp shown in the header. The dashed vertical line marks the timestamp of the latest available input data. The dash-dotted line marks the timestamp of the latest prediction.
The three following panels show the solar wind magnetic field Bz, particle density n, and speed V measured at L1 with 1-minute resolution.
The Models
The Dst prediction model consists of an ensemble of time-delay neural networks driven by measured solar wind at L1. The prediction lead time has two components: a variable propagation time from L1 to Earths bow shock, and the model lead time which is 1 hour. Thus, the maximum prediction lead time is 1 hour plus the propagation time.
The inputs to the model are solar wind magnetic field B and Bz (only Bz shown in plot), density n, speed V, and time of day and time of year. The 1-minute solar wind data are transformed into 1-hour values to match the 1-hour Dst interval. The models are run once per minute thus providing 60 predictions for every 1-hour interval. In the comparison with the observed Dst, only the predicted Dst with timestamp closest to the standard 1-hour Dst interval is used. In the plot, all bars showing predicted Dst, except the last bar, therefore comes from one prediction for each 1-hour interval. As the prediction lead time is variable and does not match the standard 1-hour Dst interval, the last bar corresponds to the 1-hour interval containing the last predicted timestamp. The last bar will therefore change in height during the passage of time.
References
- The Dst-prediction models have been described in Wintoft et al. [2018].
- The real-time solar wind data are obtained from SWPC.
- The real-time Kp index is obtained from World Data Center for Geomagnetism, Kyoto.
- The main development of the current Dst forecast model was carried out within the EU project PROGRESS, No. 637302.
- The models have been implemented at the ESA SSA portal under the G-ESC, where additional verification is carried out in real-time.
- We are responsible for Regional Warning Center – Sweden, part of International Space Environment Service ISES.
Acknowledgement IRF Lund
Help / Donation / SOS
NorthernLightsStockholm.se started as something to do, to stay sane in the cold and dark winter months in Sweden. But now i need your help to keep this project alive. There are numerous things that I am paying out of my own pocket to keep this up and running and i simply cannot afford it any more.
Just the electricity bill is going to be insane this winter. I might need to turn off the server!!!
I am asking for your help to pay for the following:
★ SSL certificates
★Domain & DNS
★Server hosting (when I can afford it)
★Internet service provider
★Development time
★Plug-ins and functions
★API services