Earth Magnetic Field Variations [+30min]
Image should be used as a guide only, it is based on predicted geomagnetic activity. Northern Lights may or may not be visible.
About the Plot
The map shows the maximum of 1-minute dB/dt magnitude over a 30 minute interval (eh30), where the interval is indicated by the Forecast valid range. The geographical extent is shown by the coloured region. The horizontal bar shows the colour coding of the different eh30 levels on a logarithmic scale in nT/min. The red dots mark the locations of the magnetic observatories that are targeted for predictions. The map also shows when the forecast was issued and the time stamp of the latest available solar wind data.
The Models
The dB/dt prediction model consists of an ensemble of recurrent neural networks driven by measured solar wind at L1. The prediction lead time consists of the variable propagation time from L1 to Earths bow shock. The maximum prediction lead time is typically around 60 minutes but may vary from 20 minutes to about 80 minutes.
The inputs to the model are solar wind magnetic field B and Bz, density n, speed V, and time of day and time of year. The 1-minute solar wind data are transformed into 30-minute values (not just simple averages). The models are run once per minute thus providing 30 predictions for every 30-minute interval.
References
- The dB/dt-prediction models have been described in Wintoft et al. [2015].
- The relations between 30-minute maximum dB/dt, electric field, and GIC are described by Viljanen et al. [2015].
- The real-time solar wind data are obtained from SWPC.
- The geomagnetic data that were used for model development was obtained from World Data Centre for Geomagnetism, Edinburgh.
- The models have been implemented at the ESA SSA portal under the G-ESC.
- Regional Warning Center – Sweden, part of International Space Environment Service ISES.
- The model for the prediction of the maximum |dB/dt| for the coming 30 minutes (eh30) has been developed by IRF Lund.
- See reference paper for more detail.
Acknowledgement
These results are very much based on projects that received funding from the ESA Space Situational Awareness Programme’s network of space weather service development activities under ESA contract number 4000113185/15/D/MRP.
All publications and presentations using data obtained from this site should acknowledge the Norwegian Centre for Space Weather at Tromsø Geophysical Observatory and the Swedish Institute of Space Physics – Lund + Swedish Space Weather Center (SSWC) at the Swedish Institute of Space Physics (IRF)
Magnetic Delta B
Sweden is only visible certain times. I´m guessing from sometime 20:00 hours?
- The University of Michigan’s BATS-R-US magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model of the magnetosphere
- The Ridley Ionosphere electrodynamics Model (RIM) developed at Michigan
- The Rice Convection Model (RCM), an inner magnetosphere ring-current model developed at Rice University
Magnetic Delta B
Usage
The Geospace Ground Magnetic Perturbation Maps display the gridded magnetic delta B (nT) output from the University of Michigan’s Geospace model, which provides regional magnetic variations on a five-by-five degree global grid. Using these data, colored contour plots of the predicted delta B are generated for three different views: delta B over North America (top panel), a global view of delta B (middle panel), and a dual polar view of the north and southern hemispheres oriented in fixed local time (bottom panel). The animations show the model forecast, where the lead time depends on the solar wind speed, as well as the previous two hours for context.
Ground magnetic perturbation maps such as those displayed here are useful for providing regional disturbance model forecasts that can be used by power grid operators to determine if disturbances are likely to have impacts at their general location.
Impacts
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/electric-power-transmission
Details
This product uses output generated by the University of Michigan’s Geospace model that consists of several components in their Space Weather Modeling Framework (link is external) (SWMF). The Geospace model is a first-principles physics-based model which includes three components:
- The University of Michigan’s BATS-R-US magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model of the magnetosphere
- The Ridley Ionosphere electrodynamics Model (RIM) developed at Michigan
- The Rice Convection Model (RCM), an inner magnetosphere ring-current model developed at Rice University
For local magnetic perturbations, the magnetic field on the ground is not directly modeled; instead, the magnetic disturbances are derived from currents in the MHD domain, the field-aligned currents (FACs) in the gap region between the MHD domain and the ionosphere, and the ionospheric Hall and Pedersen currents. The gap region is located between the inner boundary of the MHD model at 2.5 Re and the ionosphere model at ~1 Re. In the gap region the field aligned currents are assumed to flow roughly along the dipole field.
History
The Geospace Ground Magnetic Perturbation Maps represent the first generation of operational space weather products derived from the Geospace model, a model which includes both global and regional short-term predictions of geomagnetic activity. Other operational space weather products generated using output from the Geospace model include the Geospace Global Geomagnetic Activity Plot and the Geospace Magnetosphere Movies.
The Geospace model (v1.0) first went operational in October 2016, and during its first year in operations the model achieved initial success in providing forecaster guidance on levels of regional geomagnetic activity, short-term predictions of geomagnetic indices, and making data available to customers over the web.
As of November 8, 2017, the operational product was driven by the Geospace model (v 1.5). This first upgrade to the Geospace model included some minor physics improvements, new output parameters, increased model robustness, and a switch to a different operational high-performance computer (Cray). In addition, this version of the model allowed for the model to perform a warm restart from a previous output file during times when there was a solar wind data gap of greater than 15 minutes and less than 2 hours. Solar wind data gaps of greater than 2 hours continue to trigger the model to perform a cold restart, which can require 2-3 hours for the model to return to equilibrium.
As of January 25, 2021, the operational products are now being driven by the Geospace model (v2.0). In this upgrade to the Geospace model, the most significant changes are: increased resolution for solving the MHD equations in targeted regions of the grid, moving from ~ 1 million to 1.9 million grid cells; improved auroral oval specification and more realistic representation of magnetospheric current systems; new tail composition settings to better represent current systems responsible for the Disturbance Storm Time index – Dst; a new method for calculating a predicted estimated Kp (global geomagnetic activity index) based on magnetic variations from the Geospace model processed by a Kp algorithm that is the same as SWPC uses for calculating Kp from ground-based magnetometer stations.
Acknowledgement NOAA
Help / Donation / SOS
NorthernLightsStockholm.se started as something to do, to stay sane in the cold and dark winter months in Sweden. But now i need your help to keep this project alive. There are numerous things that I am paying out of my own pocket to keep this up and running and i simply cannot afford it any more.
Just the electricity bill is going to be insane this winter. I might need to turn off the server!!!
I am asking for your help to pay for the following:
★ SSL certificates
★Domain & DNS
★Server hosting (when I can afford it)
★Internet service provider
★Development time
★Plug-ins and functions
★API services
Image should be used as a guide only, it is based on predicted geomagnetic activity. Northern Lights may or may not be visible.
About the Plot
The map shows the maximum of 1-minute dB/dt magnitude over a 30 minute interval (eh30), where the interval is indicated by the Forecast valid range. The geographical extent is shown by the coloured region. The horizontal bar shows the colour coding of the different eh30 levels on a logarithmic scale in nT/min. The red dots mark the locations of the magnetic observatories that are targeted for predictions. The map also shows when the forecast was issued and the time stamp of the latest available solar wind data.
The Models
The dB/dt prediction model consists of an ensemble of recurrent neural networks driven by measured solar wind at L1. The prediction lead time consists of the variable propagation time from L1 to Earths bow shock. The maximum prediction lead time is typically around 60 minutes but may vary from 20 minutes to about 80 minutes.
The inputs to the model are solar wind magnetic field B and Bz, density n, speed V, and time of day and time of year. The 1-minute solar wind data are transformed into 30-minute values (not just simple averages). The models are run once per minute thus providing 30 predictions for every 30-minute interval.
References
- The dB/dt-prediction models have been described in Wintoft et al. [2015].
- The relations between 30-minute maximum dB/dt, electric field, and GIC are described by Viljanen et al. [2015].
- The real-time solar wind data are obtained from SWPC.
- The geomagnetic data that were used for model development was obtained from World Data Centre for Geomagnetism, Edinburgh.
- The models have been implemented at the ESA SSA portal under the G-ESC.
- Regional Warning Center – Sweden, part of International Space Environment Service ISES.
- The model for the prediction of the maximum |dB/dt| for the coming 30 minutes (eh30) has been developed by IRF Lund.
- See reference paper for more detail.
Acknowledgement
These results are very much based on projects that received funding from the ESA Space Situational Awareness Programme’s network of space weather service development activities under ESA contract number 4000113185/15/D/MRP.
All publications and presentations using data obtained from this site should acknowledge the Norwegian Centre for Space Weather at Tromsø Geophysical Observatory and the Swedish Institute of Space Physics – Lund + Swedish Space Weather Center (SSWC) at the Swedish Institute of Space Physics (IRF)
Magnetic Delta B
Sweden is only visible certain times. I´m guessing from sometime 20:00 hours?
- The University of Michigan’s BATS-R-US magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model of the magnetosphere
- The Ridley Ionosphere electrodynamics Model (RIM) developed at Michigan
- The Rice Convection Model (RCM), an inner magnetosphere ring-current model developed at Rice University
Magnetic Delta B
Usage
The Geospace Ground Magnetic Perturbation Maps display the gridded magnetic delta B (nT) output from the University of Michigan’s Geospace model, which provides regional magnetic variations on a five-by-five degree global grid. Using these data, colored contour plots of the predicted delta B are generated for three different views: delta B over North America (top panel), a global view of delta B (middle panel), and a dual polar view of the north and southern hemispheres oriented in fixed local time (bottom panel). The animations show the model forecast, where the lead time depends on the solar wind speed, as well as the previous two hours for context.
Ground magnetic perturbation maps such as those displayed here are useful for providing regional disturbance model forecasts that can be used by power grid operators to determine if disturbances are likely to have impacts at their general location.
Impacts
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/electric-power-transmission
Details
This product uses output generated by the University of Michigan’s Geospace model that consists of several components in their Space Weather Modeling Framework (link is external) (SWMF). The Geospace model is a first-principles physics-based model which includes three components:
- The University of Michigan’s BATS-R-US magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model of the magnetosphere
- The Ridley Ionosphere electrodynamics Model (RIM) developed at Michigan
- The Rice Convection Model (RCM), an inner magnetosphere ring-current model developed at Rice University
For local magnetic perturbations, the magnetic field on the ground is not directly modeled; instead, the magnetic disturbances are derived from currents in the MHD domain, the field-aligned currents (FACs) in the gap region between the MHD domain and the ionosphere, and the ionospheric Hall and Pedersen currents. The gap region is located between the inner boundary of the MHD model at 2.5 Re and the ionosphere model at ~1 Re. In the gap region the field aligned currents are assumed to flow roughly along the dipole field.
History
The Geospace Ground Magnetic Perturbation Maps represent the first generation of operational space weather products derived from the Geospace model, a model which includes both global and regional short-term predictions of geomagnetic activity. Other operational space weather products generated using output from the Geospace model include the Geospace Global Geomagnetic Activity Plot and the Geospace Magnetosphere Movies.
The Geospace model (v1.0) first went operational in October 2016, and during its first year in operations the model achieved initial success in providing forecaster guidance on levels of regional geomagnetic activity, short-term predictions of geomagnetic indices, and making data available to customers over the web.
As of November 8, 2017, the operational product was driven by the Geospace model (v 1.5). This first upgrade to the Geospace model included some minor physics improvements, new output parameters, increased model robustness, and a switch to a different operational high-performance computer (Cray). In addition, this version of the model allowed for the model to perform a warm restart from a previous output file during times when there was a solar wind data gap of greater than 15 minutes and less than 2 hours. Solar wind data gaps of greater than 2 hours continue to trigger the model to perform a cold restart, which can require 2-3 hours for the model to return to equilibrium.
As of January 25, 2021, the operational products are now being driven by the Geospace model (v2.0). In this upgrade to the Geospace model, the most significant changes are: increased resolution for solving the MHD equations in targeted regions of the grid, moving from ~ 1 million to 1.9 million grid cells; improved auroral oval specification and more realistic representation of magnetospheric current systems; new tail composition settings to better represent current systems responsible for the Disturbance Storm Time index – Dst; a new method for calculating a predicted estimated Kp (global geomagnetic activity index) based on magnetic variations from the Geospace model processed by a Kp algorithm that is the same as SWPC uses for calculating Kp from ground-based magnetometer stations.
Acknowledgement NOAA
Help / Donation / SOS
NorthernLightsStockholm.se started as something to do, to stay sane in the cold and dark winter months in Sweden. But now i need your help to keep this project alive. There are numerous things that I am paying out of my own pocket to keep this up and running and i simply cannot afford it any more.
Just the electricity bill is going to be insane this winter. I might need to turn off the server!!!
I am asking for your help to pay for the following:
★ SSL certificates
★Domain & DNS
★Server hosting (when I can afford it)
★Internet service provider
★Development time
★Plug-ins and functions
★API services